Episode 142: ChatGPT Jumps the Shark, VC Troubles, Xero Pay Fight, Nike Stores Gone, NRMA Uncovered and Waymo Expands
The guys chat about peak ChatGPT, Australian venture capital hits turbulence, Xero's highly paid CEO, Nike store franchise owner collapse, Adir investigates NRMA, and Waymo goes global.
The Contrarians catchup
Adam talked about the Victorian government closing a public park for six months (because of the F1 Australian Grand Prix), which took him back to COVID “which really only killed fat people - it was a fat person’s disease” (this is in the first couple minutes of the episode, mind you).
The guys discuss etiquette when it comes to office gender neutral bathrooms and how many people you’re allowed to wait for before you let the elevator door close.
Adir brought rose apples (also known as Syzygium jambos in Southeast Asia) into the studio, which is one of his favourite fruits.
Did you know Adam has run multiple marathons barefoot? Adir interviews Adam about this impressive athletic endeavour/fetish.
Adir poses the question we’ve all asked our close friends at some point: “How much do you care about NRMA?” Listen in for a mini deep-dive into a 100-year-old insurance business.
Adam’s quiz this week: the top 10 companies on the ASX based on the ‘Rule of 40’.
The guys discuss the closing down of Great Wrap, “the only Australian made compostable stretch wrap”. Adir said “hats off to them for trying to do something genuinely innovative in the physical space”.
Nike stores don’t do it
Seven Sydney Nike stores have shut after franchisee AF1 Pty Ltd collapsed, leaving 115 workers jobless. Nike ended its licensing deal, with liquidators managing closures and returns. Employees are covered by entitlements, but gift card holders remain unsecured creditors. Other Nike outlets remain unaffected.
Adam: “I’m surprised Nike aren’t making good on these vouchers. Because Nike has allowed these AF1 clowns to take their brand, Nike should be on for these vouchers. It just doesn’t make sense for a company so concerned with their branding. They’re a piece of rubber and a brand.”
Adir: “If you’re a brand, centralise your marketing. If you buy a gift voucher from one of them, you can’t use it at any other one of them. Can you imagine if every McDonald’s had a different offer going on? I can’t believe no one is writing about this story.”
AI doctor assistant gets $100M investment
Melbourne AI startup Heidi Health has raised $98M in a new round led by Point72, lifting its valuation to $711M. The AI medical scribe now supports two million weekly consultations in 110 languages and plans global expansion after record growth surpassing Blackbird Ventures’ previous portfolio leaders like Canva.
Adir: “Doctor transcription is a very competitive space. There’s a US business called Epic that rolls out software to hospitals that has a competitor to Heidi. That doesn’t feel like great news, right? I wouldn’t want to compete against those guys. And there’s another company competing in this space called Microsoft. And yet you have a $711M valuation on $25M of recurring revenue.”
London, your Waymo ride is arriving
Waymo plans to launch its driver-less taxi service in London in 2026, expanding beyond its US cities and Tokyo operations. The cars use a suite of lidar, cameras and radar to navigate complex urban roads, aiming to improve safety and efficiency.
Adam: “Why is Australia always so backwards with this stuff? Melbourne would be an easy city for Waymo, Adelaide would be even easier.”
Adir: “No politician in Australia is held accountable for the road toll. But if a politician encourages autonomous taxis and then they come and the first person is killed, that politician’s career is. And so this is a whole risk management cost, that’s the problem.”
ChatGPT jumps the shark
The ChatGPT mobile app’s growth appears to be slowing: global new‐download growth dropped around 8.1% month-over-month, while US average time spent per user fell 22.5% and sessions per user declined 20.7%.
Adam: “ChatGPT has this incredible brand but it’s become the jack of all trades, master of none. It’s not really great at anything. It’s got $13B of revenue on $20B of losses because everyone is misusing it. I often ask Perplexity and ChatGPT the same question and inevitably, ChatGPT disappoints me and Perplexity makes me really happy. Is Sam Altman the greatest fraud in the business world today?”
Xero CEO pay fight
Xero faces investor backlash over CEO Sukhinder Singh Cassidy’s $23.5M Silicon Valley-style pay package. Proxy firms ISS and Glass Lewis urge shareholders to vote against it, calling the 253% rise excessive and poorly tied to performance. Xero defends benchmarking to US peers, citing global competition for talent.
Adir: “Xero is thinking how the hell are they going to nail the US? They have to find someone who can help and bet hard on them. This is the money she demands and if she says ‘I need to buy this thing”, money is cheap because their share price is high. They back her as CEO.”
Five other stories worth following:
Apple’s iPhone 17 has triggered an upgrade frenzy, with sales in the US and China up 14% over the iPhone 16’s launch. Analysts credit improved batteries, displays and cameras for driving demand and boosting Apple’s holiday confidence. Huge news for those with an iPhone 12 with a two-hour battery.
Thieves pulled off a daring daytime heist at Paris’s Louvre Museum, stealing Napoleonic jewels from the Apollo Gallery. Using a cherry picker, they smashed cases and fled on motorbikes. Experts say the jewels will likely be recut and lost forever.
Wikipedia’s human pageviews have dropped 8% this year as people turn to social media and AI-powered search instead. The Wikimedia Foundation fears fewer volunteers and donations, even though AI systems were largely trained on Wikipedia’s own data.
Myer has relaunched its loyalty program with beauty at the core, offering treatments, curated gifts, and lower spend thresholds. Chairwoman Olivia Wirth aims to revive growth, inspired by Qantas’ frequent flyer success, amid competition from David Jones.
Australia’s TGA is investigating sunscreen brands over unreliable SPF claims from a British lab. More than 20 popular products, including Ultra Violette and We Are Feel Good Inc, have been recalled after tests found protection levels far below SPF 50+.