Episode 146: ASX 20 Bubble, Jumbo Deep Dive, Fyxer, Halloween and Jordy from Great Wrap

The guys discuss the growing bubble in ASX 20 stocks, deep dive into Jumbo Interactive, Adir reviews Fyxer AI, why Halloween is the best day, and chat to Jordy Kay, founder of Great Wrap.

The Contrarians catchup

• The guys recorded this on the Monday before Cup Day in Melbourne, which is notorious for most people taking an annual leave day, creating a four-day weekend.

• Adam and Adir both enjoy Halloween and don’t understand the hate for a fun holiday, but “people hate it because it’s American, but I’ll give you a tip: we’ve lost the culture wars. We’ve absorbed American culture.”

• Adam went to Australia v India’s T20 International on Friday night and had a second bike stolen within a month, “thanks to Dan Andrews.” Adam went on to ask if “there is a more incompetent government in the world than these morons running Victoria?”

• Adam kicked on with his social weekend going to Derby Day and the Oasis concert at Marvel Stadium.

• After Donald Trump’s recent interactions with Australian leaders, Adir shares that rare earths aren’t actually rare, but they’re hard to find in big amounts and tricky to separate. “Because we can basically dig a hole and whatever comes out we can sell to someone, it’s left us in a situation where the need to develop human capital and therefore tertiary industries just hasn’t been present in Australia.”

Another departure from Atlassian

Atlassian CFO Joe Binz will retire next June, marking another major leadership exit amid cultural shifts and AI disruption fears. Despite executive turnover, shares rose 5% as revenue grew 21% and AI adoption surged 50%.

Adam: “An exec leaves this business every two weeks, I reckon. What is wrong with these guys?”

Adir: “Canva’s war right now is trying to convince the market and its customers that it is not going to be the victim of the next simplification of workflow. But I still find it hard to believe that with all the money that has poured in to these much larger LLM-driven businesses, that long term Canva is going to be able to compete with those businesses.”

Special guest: Jordy Kay, founder of Great Wrap

Melbourne-based sustainable-packaging startup Great Wrap, founded in 2019 by husband-and-wife team Jordy and Julia Kay, has entered voluntary administration with roughly $39M in debt. Once a heralded innovator in compostable stretch-wrap, the company struggled as major clients shifted toward in-house recycling strategies, and its manufacturing plant failed to break even - despite raising millions and diverting millions of metres of plastic from landfill.

Jordy joins the podcast to talk about their journey, how cling wrap is traditionally made, and the problem they solved.

Jordy: “We’re a former wine maker and former architect and it’s nice to go into this not knowing necessarily how the industry works. Obviously we did a lot of research before starting the business, but I think it was that kind of naivety to go into this that gave us that ambition to set out to do something quite large and it didn’t end the way we wanted it to obviously, but I’m just super proud of us and the team and having a real crack at trying to do something quite bold like this.”

Deep dive: Jumbo Interactive

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX:JIN) saw its share price surge more than 20% over five days after announcing its acquisition of Dream Car Giveaways Limited, signalling renewed investor enthusiasm for its growth strategy.

Jumbo is a digital lottery specialist combining direct ticket-sales retail with SaaS/managed-services for lotteries and charitable fundraising. The guys dive deep into the business.

Adir: “What do you think is the number one driver that determines how many lottery tickets get sold in any given year? The jackpot price. I occasionally buy lottery tickets. It’s like the reverse of insurance.”

Adam: “The challenge I have with an acquisition like this, you want an acquisition that plugs into your distribution, so you’ve got this existing asset or scale economies, and you buy this other thing, and suddenly you can sell 10X of this product and you can make 90% margin. You think of Coca-Cola buying Vitamin Water.”

Five other stories worth following:

1. Experts describe a “K-shaped” U.S. economy where wealthy consumers thrive with rising assets and luxury spending, while lower- and middle-income households struggle under inflation, high interest rates, and weak job security, widening inequality risks.

2. The U.S. government shutdown, now in its fifth week, threatens Head Start programs for 65,000 children and could disrupt air travel and food aid, as agencies exhaust funds and political negotiations remain unresolved.

3. Metcash CFO Deepa Sita faces bullying accusations from two former executives who claim they were unfairly dismissed after raising concerns about bonuses and workplace conduct, allegations Metcash denies as baseless and linked to misconduct.

4. BYD is stockpiling thousands of unsold EVs across Australia to earn carbon credits under new emissions rules, sparking criticism that the government’s vehicle efficiency scheme rewards imports rather than actual sales to customers.

5. French police swiftly solved the $100M Louvre crown jewel heist using DNA evidence linked to existing criminal profiles, underscoring the power of France’s vast genetic database in cracking high-profile crimes.