Episode 150: DroneShield Cut and Run, Menulog Dies, The World's Greatest Inside Trader, OpenAI, Woke Judges and Airport Security Fail
The guys deep dive into DroneShield's great sell down, the death of Menulog, is Nancy Pelosi an inside trader, is OpenAI a corporate scam, Victoria's woke judges and Adam's airport security fail.
The Contrarians catchup
When Mike showed interest in a new video game Adir raised, Adir told him “you can definitely afford it given the money you’re saving on haircuts.” The game in question is not Grand Theft Auto VI, which is finally being released this week.
The guys discuss prosecutors dropping sexual-assault charges against AFL player Tanner Bruhn after witness evidence collapsed. Bruhn, who missed the 2025 season while the case was active, denied wrongdoing and is now cleared to return to pre-season training with his club.
Luxury Escapes opened its second retail store last week, hosting a blackout launch event in Bondi Junction for hundreds of keen travellers.
Adam on Sam Altman: “If there’s any doubt that this thing’s a bubble, OpenAI is at the epicentre of this bubble. And this guy, this fraud, is at the epicentre of the epicentre and he’s abusing shareholders.”
Adir questions how the Coles app experience is so bad when the website experience is perfect when trying to book a refund.
The world’s greatest inside trader
An analysis of public filings estimates Nancy Pelosi and her husband turned a roughly $785,000 stock portfolio in 1987 into about $133.7M by 2024, reaping $130M in profits and a cumulative return near 16,930%, amid bipartisan calls for stricter ethics rules.
Adam: “And maybe even more surprisingly, a very large number of her purchases were ultra high conviction, very short dated options that would hint that maybe she knew something was going on. I think she’s the greatest inside trader of all time.”
DroneShield cut and run
DroneShield’s soaring share price collapsed after CEO Oleg Vornik sold his entire $50M stake, with the chairman and another director also offloading shares. The shock sales, combined with a mistaken contract announcement, wiped $1B from the company’s value and fuelled fears insiders viewed the stock as overvalued.
Adir: “The question is, to what degree, and I say this cautiously, did each know that the other was selling this large number of shares? Because that could be problematic if the answer was they did it in a coordinated fashion.”
Adam: “Part of the responsibility of a CEO is to make sure that the share price doesn’t differ from its intrinsic value too much. And these people knew the share price was getting out of control. They should have cautioned the market. These guys put more fuel on the fire. This is just outrageous behaviour.”
Adam: “I think the problem with bubbles like we’re in now is that dumb people look smart.”
Adir: “The person that has the least control of the share price is the chairman and CEO because we’re not buying or selling, right? But we’re messaging. So we have a little bit of control, but I think getting the messaging right is very important because you’ve got to take investors on an honest journey to understand the performance of the business.”
Menulog dies
Menulog will shut its Australian operations on November 26 after heavy losses and shrinking market share amid fierce competition from Uber Eats and DoorDash. Despite big celebrity campaigns, revenue halved and losses exceeded $400M since 2022. Its new owner Prosus opted to exit Australia, leaving 120 staff redundant and couriers compensated.
Adir: “Basically the curve of the value of MenuLog looks like $850M on the day that the deal’s done. Sharp drop to maybe $200M six months later and then a slow burn down to probably minus $5M or something, because of all the losses as well.”
Adam: “It’s a sad story but predictable.”
Five other stories worth following:
Topgolf may be valued near $1B in a potential sale to Leonard Green, as parent Callaway considers offloading it. Callaway bought the business for $2B in 2021, but sales have since declined as recreational golfers reduce spending.
The House is expected to vote on releasing all DOJ files related to Jeffrey Epstein after Trump reversed his earlier resistance. Following tensions with Republican allies, he now says the documents should be released, insisting he has “nothing to hide” and urging the party to refocus.
Nvidia reports earnings this Wednesday, drawing intense market attention given its trillion-dollar valuation and 1,000% share rise in three years. Analysts expect another strong quarter, but anything short of expectations could weigh heavily on broader markets due to Nvidia’s influence.
JPMorgan is obligated to pay $142M in legal fees for Charlie Javice and a co-executive despite her fraud conviction for inflating user numbers before the $175M sale of Frank. The bank is challenging the mounting costs, which include luxury hotels and questionable “legal” expenses.
Bitcoin fell below $95,000 — its lowest since May — after major ETF outflows and a 24% drop from its October peak. Treasury-focused crypto firms fell even further, with some valued below their holdings. Experts are split, but warn traders to stay alert.
Thanks for writing this, it clarifies a lot. The OpenAI bubble point hits hard, though the tech itself is still a genuine breakthrough, even with the market's enthusiastic valuatation.