Episode 152: Nvidia Worries, Xero Disappoints Again, DroneShield Nightmare Gets Worse, Tesla, Defund the ABC and Adir's Awesome Quiz
The guys chat about the Nvidia worries which could sink the market, Xero's latest announcement, DroneShield rings the bell, Adam's Tesla fail, ABC, and Adir the quizmaster.
The Contrarians catchup
Adam is very excited about Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)” functionality and signed up to the new feature, only to find out his model is too old for the software upgrade.
In another tech upgrade stumble, Adam had issues with the new Oura Ring - “this is all you guys do and I couldn’t set up the ring, what is wrong with you?”
Adam also says he doesn’t like Apple products but he “can’t switch because all my stuff is on Apple”, sparking a conversation whether there’s a correlation between switching costs and laziness.
To settle a debate from last week, Adir put out a LinkedIn poll asking “Going through an Australian airport, which security check PROCESS do you prefer?” and was relieved that only 13% agreed with Adam (traditional process), and found it amusing that 25% said it was too boring to answer.
Adam and Mike guessed that Adir would’ve spent $100,000 on video games the last decade. The real answer? A mere $1000. His secret? Humble Bundle.
Adam has Courtney Ray from Daily Blooms as the third best female entrepreneur in Australia. Who do you think are the top two?
Adir the quizmaster
For those playing at home, the questions from Adir’s niche quiz about Ron Brierley (a New Zealand investor and corporate raider, chairman and director of a number of companies in Australia, New Zealand and the UK) below. Listen to the pod for the answers.
Which now top 20 ASX company was so out of favour in the 1980s that corporate writers circled it as a breakup target and owned large chunks of it?
When Lady Fairfax asked Ron Brierley to give Warwick Fairfax a job, what did Brierley do?
Which 1990s corporate writer became Australia’s first billionaire?
Which big life insurer did Brierley quietly accumulate shares, helping spark a fight over unlocking value that kind of foreshadowed Australia’s demutualisation debates?
Who bought Channel 10 in 1987 and then got the heck out of it two years later after a huge loss?
Could Nvidia sink the market?
Nvidia reported revenue of US$57B in the latest quarter, up by 62% year-on-year. Sales from its data-centre/AI chip division climbed 66%, topping market expectations. The company also forecast Q4 revenue of around US$65B, reigniting investor optimism about the AI boom.
Adir: “Nvidia is getting real money from OpenAI. It’s an interesting decision to go from the ultra profitable recipient of the boom, to the hugely loss-making spender in the boom. I was hoping it would do a bit badly, although I don’t want it to tank the stock market, because I want to be able to buy graphics cards for my gaming at a reasonable price.”
Adam: “Nvidia is the beneficiary of the world’s biggest companies taking out debt to buy these things that will one day make them money.”
Adir: “Obviously this will come to an end and AI will under-deliver. This AI revolution is not bigger than the industrial revolution and we all still had jobs after the industrial revolution, they were just different jobs. Whatever this is going to deliver, it’s going to under-deliver.”
Xero disappoints again
Xero is preparing to charge for new AI features such as automated bank reconciliation, its JAX assistant, and tools built with OpenAI. Investors expect meaningful pricing after months of free trials. With recent share declines and scrutiny over its Melio acquisition, Xero’s AI rollout will test its pricing power and justify broader AI infrastructure investment.
The company’s share price fell 5% after the release of their FY26 half-year results.
Adam: “This is a company that’s losing the plot, there’s no other explanation for it.”
Adir: “If this is just an Australian and New Zealand business, there’s a zero-percent chance they can maintain this valuation multiple. Xero can’t expand overseas and it’s a really big problem. Businesses of this size need to be making 25% profit margins.”
Five other stories worth following:
Alphabet shares have jumped 77% in six months as Gemini 3 outperformed rival AI models and new image tools impressed investors. Strong growth in cloud, search, and YouTube, plus Waymo’s rapid expansion, boost momentum despite a major antitrust ruling still pending.
X triggered controversy after revealing account locations, exposing several prominent MAGA profiles as operating overseas. Viral claims that the DHS account appeared to be based in Israel were denied by both X and DHS before the feature briefly vanished and then fully rolled out.
Wicked: For Good opened with $150M, the biggest ever for a Broadway adaptation. Its PG rating and family appeal drove huge attendance, while Ariana Grande’s performance stood out and helped solidify her transition from pop star to film star.
The final season of Stranger Things arrives Wednesday, with four episodes released first, three more on Christmas Day, and the finale on New Year’s Eve. The staggered schedule closes out the show’s nine-and-a-half-year run, outlasting many a relationship.
Ukraine peace talks showed renewed progress despite a leaked 28-point draft plan widely criticised for favouring Russia. After meetings in Geneva, US officials said Ukraine’s key concerns were fully addressed, though specifics remain undisclosed.