Episode 157: Is OpenAI a Goner? Don't Miss Adir's AI Deep Dive, Netflix goes Pacman, Bending Spoons goes Old School, Social Media Ban, Amex Kills Points and Pollies Behaving Badly
Adir gives an incredible AI deep dive, Netflix bids for Warner and bets the company, Bending Spoons hits $11B, Australia's social media ban, Amex devalue points (again) and Anika Wells flies business.
The Contrarians catchup
Adir says Melbourne’s coffee is no longer significantly better than other places because its coffee culture has spread around the world, and “it might not have been total wankerism that Melbourne coffee is better.”
The guys discuss how it was possible for Labor Minister, Anika Wells, to spend nearly $100,000 in airfares for herself and two staff to fly to New York City.
Adir’s conspiracy theory is that Anika’s anger-inducing news was leaked by big tech companies who are displeased with the pending social media ban for under 16s in Australia - “hats off to Australia for being the first country to do this.”
The guys discuss another pending “D-day”: From December 15, Amex points will lose about 50% of their spending power when transferred to most airline partners.
Bending Spoons goes old school
Bending Spoons is an Italian technology conglomerate, founded in 2013, that typically acquires products with existing product‑market fit and manages them for long-term ownership.
Bending Spoons snapped up Eventbrite for $500M, adding it to a growing stable that includes Evernote, WeTransfer, Vimeo, and Brightcove. They describe themselves as a “hold-forever” operator: it acquires established but stagnant digital brands, restructures them, refines user experience and monetisation, and vows never to sell them.
Since October 2025 its valuation surged past $10B, making it among Europe’s few “decacorns.”
Adam: “These guys are the masters at finding these unloved, hated, fallen angels. And they’ve done an amazing job, it’s an incredible story.”
Netflix goes Pacman
Netflix will acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s studios and HBO Max for $108.5B, adding major franchises like Game of Thrones, DC, Dune and Harry Potter. The move, following a bidding war with Paramount, triggered fierce backlash from Hollywood figures including James Cameron, who warn the merger is a “disaster.”
Update: Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery at $US30 a share in cash on Monday, just days after the company agreed to a deal with Netflix.
Adir: “I’d love to know how much value they put on the back catalog because presumably, this is how these deals work. When they go to investors, they say if we buy this back catalog, we don’t have to spend as much money on new content. But they’re not going to reduce their spend on content.”
Adam: “They’ve got Disney as the only real competitor and then got a bunch of smaller ones like Peacock and HBO and HBO Max and Paramount. They’re almost too small to count. The beauty of Netflix is it’s now compulsory. Everything else is optional, but you have to get Netflix. I think their worry is if they don’t get Warner, Paramount HBO becomes good enough to be a default as well.”
Is OpenAI a goner?
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared “code red,” refocusing all resources on ChatGPT after rival Gemini 3 from Google surpassed it in benchmarks. OpenAI is pausing non-essential projects (ad tools, shopping and health agents or the “Pulse” assistant) to prioritise speed, reliability, personalisation and core chatbot quality.
The move underscores the intensifying AI race as major competitors make rapid advances, putting pressure on ChatGPT’s dominance and raising questions about OpenAI’s long-term strategic focus.
Adir: “There is a big barrier to entry that’s a genuine moat in these data centres, which have two big problems that they need to solve: power and water, because they need cooling. One data centre is using the same amount of power as 200,000 houses at any one time.”
Adir: “In order for AI to grow at the rate that all these data centres are being built, Nvidia would have to do something between 3 and 10x the number of chips that they’re producing over the next three years. I don’t see how it’s possible. I think that’s why this is a bubble. Even if there was demand, which I don’t think there will be at this scale.”
Do yourself a favour and listen to Adir’s unbelievable deep dive into how AI works. He basically doesn’t take a breath for 30 minutes. It’s like that scene from ‘Old School’ where Will Ferrell wins a political debate, culminating in him blacking out.
Five other stories worth following:
Apple is facing leadership churn as several senior executives retire or depart, including its AI chief, amid struggles in AI and talent losses to rivals. Cook remains optimistic, but doubts grow over his long-term leadership.
A burst pipe at the Louvre soaked 300–400 historic books in the Egyptian antiquities library. Staff are drying items, but critics say warnings about deteriorating pipes were ignored, despite a planned HVAC renovation set for 2026.
Netflix plans an $83B acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets, giving it HBO’s full catalogue and a century of Warner films. Costs to subscribers remain uncertain, especially for those already paying for both services.
Charlie Kirk’s Wikipedia page became 2025’s most-viewed English article, reflecting the platform’s draw for political figures, major films, and high-profile deaths. The top three pages collectively reached 118.6M views, surpassing last year’s leading total.
Gen Z skincare brand Bubble is expanding into nearly 1,000 Woolworths stores as Australia emerges a top market. Already popular online and in Priceline, the brand aims to challenge Mecca’s dominance and broaden access for teen shoppers.