Episode 165: 2026 Predictions and What We Got Badly Wrong (and Right) Last Year
The guys give their predictions for 2026 and review how they went for 2025, no holds barred.
The Contrarians catchup
Adir went into this week’s world-famous annual predictions episode hoping to stay awake and terrified at how badly he probably predicted 2025.
The guys discuss the pros and cons of particular hotel loyalty programs. Hear from the best in the biz (Adam) on where to get the best deals.
Adir talks about the journeys of EatClub and ShopBack and whether the two high-growth Australian tech startups are going to start encroaching on each others’ territories.
Adam finds the UK’s compulsory service charges “repulsive”, with around 90% of dining venues now “banging on a 13.5% service charge and say it’s discretionary because you can ask for it to be removed.”
Adir gave his review of which stores were busiest as he walked around a shopping centre (Mecca, Lovisa, Peter Alexander), with only one luxury brand having a line of customers (Chanel).
2025 predictions: A recap
The guys made some bold predictions for 2025 - let’s see how accurate (or early) they were.
Adam predicted a rapid end to the data centre boom, Adir said it had another year in it. With the continued rise of DiGiCo and Nvidia (the world’s most valuable company with a market cap around $4.5T), Adir was right here but said 2026 is harder to predict.
Adam correctly called the IPO of Chemist Warehouse, but predicted a valuation under $10B (it’s trading at 58x earnings, sitting at around $34B).
Adam predicted Waymo going mainstream in the US, Adir said he was going too early. With 20M trips in 2025 alone, the reality was somewhere in between the two.
Adam thought 2025 would be the year of mainstream drone deliveries, Adir predicted no change (“I thought that was a ridiculous prediction you made, to be honest”).
The guys took a stab at Tesla’s 2025 performance and Musk’s relationship with Trump. Adam nailed Trump but not Tesla, Adir was the opposite - “Tesla is a religion and religions do not follow economic logic”.
If you’re a regular listener, you could guess Adam and Adir’s predictions for Canva and Virgin in 2025 (some right, some wrong).
Listen in to see how Adam and Adir performed with the rest of their 2025 predictions when it came to Australian politics, retail, mergers and acquisitions, and interest rates.
2026 predictions: A preview
Adam predicts the AUD will creep up above 70c USD for the first time since COVID and the RBA will have to lift rates, giving us a bigger interest rate differential. Adir thinks China’s economic problems keep the AUD sub-70 and says he’s “more politically cynical this year”.
Adam’s best performing stock will be Amazon - “you’ve got automation hitting their warehouses, AWS is performing well, they’re coming off the lowest base of the Mag 7”. The worst performing? Apple. “They’re such a badly run business on the product side, that Apple magic has been snapped away”. Adir says “Nvidia is a mirror of what the world thinks about AI, so they have another year of innovation from the rest of the Mag 7 before the pressure is on them”. Adir predicts Alphabet will be up, Apple will be down.
Adir predicts OpenAI will have a new CEO by the end of 2026. Adam: “You mean Scam Altman. I’d love to see that, I think it’s a better business without him”.
When it comes to the ASX tech index, Adam says it’ll go down 25%, Adir said it’s going up 25% (it’s not called The Contrarians for nothing).
Bitcoin finished 2025 around 11% down, at $89k USD. Adam predicts it’ll continue its downward trend to $75k. Adir: “It feels like it’s getting old to me. There’s no utility in it, so I see it spending more time staying under $85k than over. The era of Bitcoin tanking is not upon us yet, but the era of Bitcoin flying is behind us”.
Listen in to hear how the guys predict podcast-favourite Corporate Travel Management, gambling stocks, aviation stocks, autonomous vehicles, Grand Theft Auto VI, the Victorian election, and the future of The Contrarians franchise (“there's some very cool stuff that we've got planned that I think people will love”).
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Clicks Technology is launching the Communicator, a $500 smartphone accessory with a physical keyboard. The product targets users nostalgic for tactile typing, aiming to blend modern smartphones with old-school productivity hardware.