Episode 167: Costco Deepdive, Health Insurance Pricing, Iran on the Edge of Freedom, and Albo's Royal Commission Dark Arts
The guys deep dive into the incredible business of Costco, Adir goes deep into health insurance pricing, and Albo backflips on the Royal Commission with a big asterisk.
The Contrarians catchup
Adam is preparing for another leg surgery, this time to remove the rod he had inserted about 10 months ago. Of course, he’s been running every day before he’s out for another six weeks post-operation.
Adir says the citizens of Japan are dreading the upcoming Tokyo Marathon because they’re over having tourists invade their country.
The guys discuss the growing popularity of Australians visiting Singapore and Dubai, not just flying through them on the way to other destinations.
Adir on the upcoming Royal Commission into antisemitism and the Bondi attack: “It might be disastrous, but you can’t have everything and this would’ve been a very unexpected win three weeks ago. So we should just take the win.”
Listen in for Adir’s masterclass on private health insurance.
Writing off the Adelaide Writers’ Week
The Adelaide Writers’ Week future is uncertain after organisers cancelled Palestinian-Australian author Randa Abdel-Fattah’s invitation, triggering dozens of high-profile withdrawals, sponsorship losses and board resignations. Critics call for her reinstatement and warn the festival’s viability and reputation are at risk amid legal and political fallout.
Adam: “If you pull out of the writers’ festival on the basis of Abdel-Fattah being withdrawn, then you effectively support the denial of the rape of women and the mass murder of young children. So every person who pulled out needs to know what they’re supporting.”
The 2025-26 Iran protests
Iran’s government declared three days of national mourning as nationwide protests over economic woes escalate, leaving hundreds dead and thousands arrested. Tehran blames foreign influence and warns the US and Israel, while Washington weighs responses and Trump threatens “strong options” as unrest persists amid internet blackouts.
Adir: “We can just hope that Iran flips and it becomes democratic. I think that’s the biggest news story of the year at the moment and it’s been barely reported on.”
The incredible business of Costco
Costco Australia lifted sales to $12.6B, up $1.2B, paying its US parent a near-$300M dividend. Profits rose to $389M as it quietly gained share. Growth came despite fierce competition from Woolworths, Coles and Aldi, as an intensifying price war and regulatory pressure reshapes the supermarket sector.
Adir: “Why was the market totally empty for Costco to come and do this? I do find Australia a bit of a sleepy place often. It’s just astonishing to me in this country there are some big industries where the cost of capital is less. Woolworths and Wesfarmers are constantly looking for ways to grow. I mean, I would have thought this would have been a better bet.”
Adam: “Costco came to Australia in 2009 when it was a $20B. It’s now over $400B, growing 20x in a pretty short time. I can’t believe there’s not a Trader Joe’s in Australia. What I think Costco and Trader Joe’s both do really well is the surprise and delight aspect.”
Five other stories worth following:
Trump proposed a one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest, arguing Americans are overcharged. Banks warn caps could restrict credit for risky borrowers. Research suggests savings, reduced rewards, and less access for low-score consumers nationwide.
KPop Demon Hunters energised the Golden Globes, winning best animated feature and song. TV winners included The Pitt, The Studio, and Hacks, while Timothée Chalamet and Paul Thomas Anderson claimed directing and screenplay honours.
Netflix launched video podcasts, adding 34 shows and hosting a live Bill Simmons broadcast, aiming to boost daytime viewing and challenge YouTube. Exclusive deals pulled major shows like The Breakfast Club from rival platforms.
NASA will return SpaceX Crew-11 early after a health incident, the first such ISS case. The crew member remains undisclosed. The Dragon capsule is expected to undock Wednesday and splash down Thursday, weather permitting.
Some Silicon Valley firms now offer nicotine pouches as productivity perks, citing focus benefits. Experts warn nicotine is addictive, may harm gums, and risks normalising stimulant use at work, echoing debates over coffee perks.
Sorry to post this here but I did not subscribe yet received a notice from my bank that a payment of $70 was made from my account to The Contraian. When I tried to cancel and get my money back I got a message from Substack saying my account was not recognized.
How do I unsubscribe and get my money back?
Adam, according to my brief research I think you don't know who Randa Abdel-Fattah is? She's a sociologist, not a Sudanese army chief.