Episode 169: Jellycat Deep Dive, Atlassian Share Price Crash, Kings Counsel Ransom, Writers Festival Monstrosity, SXSW Sydney Dies and Adam’s Passport Bliss
The guys deep dive into the incredibly profitable world of Jellycats, Atlassian's share price crash, King's Counsels score a pay rise, the Adelaide Writers' Festival, and the death of SXSW Sydney.
The Contrarians catchup
Adam was in a Healthscope hospital to have the rod removed from the leg he broke 10 months ago. The American-owned Australian company was placed into receivership last year by lenders over $1.6B in debt.
Adam was flawed that the process to renew your passport has improved so dramatically, going from a long form to a single page you need to sign - “I can't believe that the government actually did something that improves efficiency.”
Adir’s latest bull case: Nvidia and their new Vera Rubin chip, which is designed to think faster, use less power, and respond instantly.
Adir’s latest bear case: OpenAI has a new role in ‘CEO of Applications’ (Fidji Simo). “When I read that, I thought ‘last person, turn out the lights’. If you are going down that road and have to start dishing out the CEO for this, CEO for that titles. It feels like a massive bear signal of hype.”
Atlassian’s share price dropped 28% the last 30 days. Adam: “This is just a remarkable drop. I haven’t seen a company of this scale drop like this outside of a massive market-wide crash. This is a catastrophe.”
SXSW stays NXNE
Organisers confirmed SXSW Sydney ends after 2025, closing its Asia-Pacific expansion. Despite strong attendance and $276M impact (Adam: “Although that number appears to be fictional”), changing global conditions, sponsorship pressure and competition made the event unviable. SXSW continues in Austin and London.
Adam: “Having been there, I found it completely soulless. Nothing against marketing, but it felt much more marketing than it was tech. Like a big marketing circle jerk.”
Adir: “You’ve got an event run by the biggest event business in the US and they predominantly just want to make money. That’s fine. I like capitalism. Then you’ve got a New South Wales government - what’s their motivation? They want to be elected.”
Adelaide Writers’ Week cancelled
The 2026 Adelaide Writers’ Week was cancelled after organisers removed Palestinian-Australian author Dr Randa Abdel-Fattah from the lineup, sparking a mass boycott by invited authors and board resignations. Abdel-Fattah has launched legal action against South Australia’s premier over his comments about the controversy.
Adir: “Those people who disagree with everything I say and think she should be allowed to spout what I think is hate speech and she should be given a platform for doing it. Those are exactly the type of people that we should be having to writers’ festivals. There’s good news for those people. The Adelaide Writers’ Festival is back on for 2027, and she’s the first invitee.”
Adir: “The views that are being held here are ‘I hate people based on their identity’. And if you happen to hate a different group of people based on their identity, that in fact is the same view. It’s not a different view. Just substituting the name of the group whose identity you hate.”
Adam: “I'm very much in favour of free speech. Have your free speech, just don't have it on my dime. That's the issue. If you want to have a writers’ festival with every leftwing writer in the world, have it. Just don't get taxpayer funding for it.”
RBA spared ‘gangland-style pressures’
Former RBA insiders say Australia has avoided the “gangland-style” political pressure facing the US Federal Reserve, but warn risks remain. Partisan appointments, rising government debt, and the Treasury secretary’s voting role could undermine RBA independence, highlighting the need to protect central bank autonomy.
Adir: “I think what we’re seeing in the world today is how much of our societal structure is held together on the basis of a handshake agreement. And the reason I say that is because you look at politically elected leaders in Australia and in the US, they get to appoint the judges of the highest court in the land. But after that, you’re supposed to be independent and don’t be influenced by the handshake agreement.”
Labubu tumbles on resale market
Once-hot Labubu collectible figures from Pop Mart have seen resale prices plunge as hype fades, with rare editions tumbling from thousands to mere hundreds. The shift has left resellers cautious, while fans are split between lamenting losses and welcoming lower prices, reflecting how speculative trends quickly correct.
With Labubu being old news, the guys go deep on Jellycats.
Adir: “I have to say this business is amazing in terms of the numbers, but what’s most incredible to me is that this is not a vertically-integrated retail business. You saw people buying them in Selfridges. That means they’re giving a wide margin to the retailer in order to sell.”
Adam: “They’re doing $17M in market cap per employee. It’s actually insane. Obviously there’s Nvidia and Microsoft in terms of businesses that are making money that are kind of accessible consumer businesses. But there can’t be that many better businesses than this out there.”
Five other stories worth following:
Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland and impose tariffs on European allies risks reopening a transatlantic trade war, with the EU considering up to $108B in retaliation using its powerful “anti-coercion” economic tool.
Global demand for South Korean “K-food” surged in 2025, lifting exports to a record $13.6B as instant noodles boomed, driven by US and emerging-market consumers seeking affordable, interesting meals amid slowing domestic population growth.
China recorded its lowest birthrate since 1949, marking a fourth straight annual decline and accelerating a demographic crisis. The population fell to 1.4B in 2025, shrinking by three million year-on-year, according to data.
OpenAI announced it will begin testing targeted ads for ChatGPT’s free and Go tiers in the US, aiming to fund free access. Paid tiers remain ad-free, with users able to limit personalisation and control.
Data from Similarweb shows Meta’s Threads now surpasses X in daily mobile users, while X still leads on web. Growth reflects longer-term trends, as controversies and investigations hit X over recent months, globally observed.