Episode 175: SaaS Crash! AI Collapse. Atlassian Hammered. Xero Obliterated. BTC Decimated. CTM Founder Lives Large. Will Canva Take Down Australian VCs.
The guys discuss a wild week of markets and the SaaS catastrophe, Atlassian's share price, Xero's horrid year, Bitcoin drops below US$70,000, Corporate Travel Management, and how much is Canva worth?
The Contrarians catchup
Adam and Adir revisit last episode’s unexpectedly long IREN conversation, joke about meme stocks, and briefly touch on the ongoing Firmus saga, including whether anything meaningful has actually changed despite the share price chaos.
Adir called Firmus a meme stock and said that was “being generous”.
The guys discuss the defensibility of two-sided marketplaces (because competitors have to dislodge both sides) like carsales, SEEK, and Rokt, and whether Rokt is actually a two-sided marketplace.
Adir: “A revenue multiple is a proxy for the promise of tomorrow’s cashflow”.
The guys do a mini deep-dive into Atlassian, which if you’re new to the podcast, is a weekly tradition. Adam is worried about their marketing costs continuing to go up - a sign that they’re not growing efficiently.
Their take on Atlassian’s valuation: “They couldn’t do what was right (make money) because it would destroy their valuation. Now the valuation is destroyed.”
Adir on the line between Bitcoin and a Ponzi scheme: “Some smart people look at these things sometimes and see how dumb they are and what they say is, well, I think I can make a lot of money before people realise how dumb this is.”
AI isn’t killing SaaS (valuations are)
Investors are selling SaaS stocks amid fears AI will erode pricing power, automate workflows and undermine growth, triggering sharp share drops and “SaaSocalypse” talk - though some leaders call these fears exaggerated.
The counter-argument is that investors simply stopped caring about cash flows during the boom.
Adir: “When you run a big SaaS company, coding is the easy part. The hard part is the strategy and compliance and getting sales and servicing customers - like all of that is much harder.”
Adir: “There’s no better sign of a bubble than when people start using revenue multiples instead of cash flow. “
Adam: “I think the reason these SaaS businesses are being smashed is because is because people realise: holy sh*t, these valuations are ridiculous, why am I paying so much for these services.”
Is Dan Andrews okay?
Former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews is reportedly seriously debilitated after a neurological medical episode, and has been hospitalised since late 2025. He’s struggling with speech and movement but is said to be improving under intensive rehabilitation. Adam had two trusted sources say it was a very serious stroke.
Adam: “This sounds significantly more serious than the media had portrayed. I think the reason it’s come out the last couple weeks is that he has recovered somewhat.”
How much is Canva really worth?
Canva has been swept into a brutal tech sell-off as investors fear AI platforms like Anthropic will replicate core software functions. With peers collapsing, markets are questioning whether Canva’s private valuation should be marked down sharply, echoing heavy falls in Adobe, Figma and broader software stocks across global markets today.
The guys discuss: how much is Canva really worth?
Adir: “I don’t think it’s controversial to say Canva is going to suffer the same consequences as every other business in the current SaaS crash. I think Canva is one of the most susceptible businesses to the rise of AI and vibe coding - their entire business is effectively a workflow business.”
Xero gets a li’l defensive
Xero’s CEO says the accounting platform can’t be easily cloned by AI because its proprietary transaction data, bank integrations and infrastructure create durable advantages. Despite investor sell-offs and AI fears, Xero argues AI will expand its market, enhance products, and support long-term growth, with Melio tracking ahead of expectations.
Adir: “Making the focus of an entire presentation the most defensive argument I've ever heard might not be great, right?”
Five other stories worth following:
Hims & Hers briefly launched a $49 compounded Wegovy pill, then withdrew it after FDA warnings. Regulators signaled enforcement against GLP-1 copycats, as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly defend patents amid legal gray areas.
The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 29–13 at Super Bowl LX, while Bad Bunny stole the spotlight with halftime show featuring Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin, ending with message of love globally.
Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi secured a landslide snap-election victory, giving her coalition control of parliament. She says the result mandates higher defense spending, stronger manufacturing, and a deeper alliance with the United States.
Washington Post CEO Will Lewis resigned days after mass layoffs. Owner Jeff Bezos emphasized a data-driven strategy, saying reader data would guide what matters, as CFO Jeff D’Onofrio became acting CEO and publisher thereafter.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position looks shaky, with Polymarket pricing only a 34% chance he lasts through 2026. Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are seen as leading potential successors inside the Labour Party.