Episode 181: Death of a Tyrant, Eucalyptus Riches, OpenAI's Lofty Valuation, Cettire in Tatters, CTM Clinging On and Jacinda Hates NZ
The guys discuss the latest in Iran and the death of a brutal murderer, Eucalyptus founder riches, is the OpenAI capital raise for real, Cettire barrels towards death, and CTM's strange financials.
The Contrarians catchup
The guys open by discussing the war that’s broken out at the time of recording and its reaction by certain Australian politicians, including “the ultra far left who are cheering on terrorists - these people are the scum of the earth, they should go live in Gaza.”
Adir: “The bottom line is that terrible regimes acquire weapons - that is their fixation. All they want is the worst weapons they can get their hands on, to oppress their own people and to attack us. If you believe in liberal democracy, we don't get the luxury of deciding where the terrible people get weapons. We just get to decide if we also have weapons.”
Adir also says “there is still such a thing in this world as good and evil” and that the “Greens and other people on the left should not be so morally confused as to be unable to identify which side in this conflict is good and which side is evil.”
Adir had a surprisingly good experience checking into a hotel, and was even more surprised by a recent positive experience in a car park. Asking Mike about his opinion on car parks, Mike responded with “I’ve never thought about it as much as you.'“
Luxury Escapes are sponsoring the Melbourne Fashion Festival and Adam spoke highly of the vibe of the event, its operational excellence, and how it makes people better together.
Adam despises what the Australian F1 grand prix does to Melbourne’s roads this time of year: “I've never seen a more clear example of the rich just creating rules for themselves".
Jacinda moves to Sydney
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern is temporarily relocating to Australia with her family for work, joining a growing number of Kiwis moving across for higher salaries and opportunities.
Jacinda said her family has been travelling for a few years now “and being based in Australia brought the added bonus of more time back home in New Zealand.”
The guys are skeptical.
Adir: “If you want more time back home in New Zealand, an even better option that puts you even closer to your home in New Zealand is New Zealand.”
Adam: “I would’ve thought she’d belong in Melbourne. Surely Melbourne supplies everything you need for a rabid socialist, for shut-the-door Jacinda.”
Eucalyptus, Hims and GLP-1 wars
Sydney health tech startup Eucalyptus was acquired by NYSE-listed Hims & Hers for $1.6B, creating one of Australia’s biggest staff share windfalls. Over 100 employees become millionaires, including CEO Tim Doyle, while early investors and executives celebrate significant payouts from the telehealth giant’s expansion.
The acquisition remains contentious as Hims shares have slid, Novo Nordisk is suing, and debt markets are cautious.
Adir has three “bits of M&A speculation”:
Chemist Warehouse should’ve bought Eucalyptus.
Novo Nordisk should partner with Hims.
Could OpenAI acquire Canva?
Adir: “What if I said to you, if I’m Novo I change my attitude towards Hims. Instead of suing them for the next two and a half years… I just use them as an amazing channel to market.”
Adir: “Wouldn’t it be interesting if OpenAI said, what we want is the world’s best distribution on a specific use case for AI.”
Adam: “SaaS has gone from being everyone's favourite sector six months ago to now being hated. It's been just the most remarkable transition. It's gone from, in my view, SaaS was massively overpriced and now it feels like it’s been taken to the woodshed too much.”
Corporate Travel Management: unaudited chaos
Corporate Travel Management says an accounting review into UK overcharging will finish in March, with shares resuming in Q2. While strong half-year earnings and 98% ANZ retention offer reassurance, the scandal has slowed renewals and new business, with some customers reconsidering providers amid ongoing uncertainty.
Adam: “Part of the challenge is there's no real assets in this business. It's a virtual business in many ways.”
Adir: “You’re the Novak Djokovic of business commentary. The more people who turn against you, the better you perform.”
Deep dive: Cettire and going concern risk
This week’s deep dive focused on Cettire’s dramatic deterioration.
Cettire shares plunged 26% after its auditor warned of “material uncertainty” about its ability to continue, citing liabilities exceeding assets by $51.6M. Falling US sales, tariffs and higher costs pushed the luxury retailer to a $1.1M loss, despite management insisting it remains solvent.
Listen in for the deepest of dives into a company’s woes.
Adir: “You might say how can a business that loses $2M before tax increase their cash and cash equivalents by $24M? And I think inside that story is a lot of what you might want to worry about with this piece that was slightly beyond beyond the profit and loss.”
Five other stories worth following:
Croissant wants to turn resale into a default shopping behaviour by embedding guaranteed buyback offers directly into online checkouts. Its AI sets resale prices, turning purchases into one-click liquid assets, driving repeat spending and retailer loyalty.
Honor unveiled a concept smartphone featuring a swiveling robotic arm with an AI-powered camera that photographs, analyses surroundings, and even sings lullabies. While eye-catching, it’s unclear whether the product will launch - or if consumers actually want it.
Idaho’s Bogus Basin stored winter snow under insulated blankets through summer heat, preserving 80% for early-season skiing. The $120K experiment reopened slopes before snowfall, offering a cheaper climate workaround than multimillion-dollar snowmaking infrastructure expansions.
Prediction market Polymarket saw $529M wagered on timing of US strikes on Iran, with six new accounts reportedly profiting $1M. Analysts warn anonymity and conflict-linked bets may incentivise informed trading or raise ethical concerns.
Developers have proposed a $1.2B, 32-storey apartment tower above a redeveloped Mandarin Centre in Chatswood, Sydney. The project would add 325 apartments and refreshed retail, aiming to boost housing supply and revitalise the ageing shopping precinct.