Episode 221: Nvidia’s AI Trade, Telstra’s Disaster, EasyJet’s Takeover Fight, Protein Mania, and TEG Loses the Plot
EasyJet and discount airlines, Telstra’s outage, Twinkies, protein mania, gambling, Norway’s sporting machine, WFH obesity, Nvidia and Fermi’s AI bubble, Bitcoin, TEG, Ticketek and Live Nation.
H3: The Contrarians catchup
Adam is still in rural UK, recording from a farm with alpacas wandering in the background. London restaurants are packed, but everything is expensive. “A hundred bucks a head before drinks, and this is not fine dining by any stretch.”
Adam took an EasyJet flight from Luton and, against all expectations, had a good experience. His hack: book row one. “If you’re in row one, there’s two baggage containers just for row one. You have no stress.” Adir’s response: “When you pay more money, they give you better stuff. I can give you a little recap on how capitalism works.”
Adam booked a pre-reserved Uber at 4:30am in rural UK for a 50% premium, specifically for the guaranteed pickup guarantee. The driver hid his car, waited for the cancellation window to expire, collected the full premium fare, and drove past Adam waving him down. Adam then had to book another Uber at double the original price. “This guy purposely hid the car, waited for the time to expire, got paid the full fare, which is this massive premium fare, and just went off and did another job.”
Twinkies are having a terrible time. Since 2022, desserts are down almost 25%. Adir: “Nobody wants to eat these snacks anymore because they’re all taking these injections for GLP. And then there’s a second thing going on, which you might call MAHA. Make America Healthy Again.” Meanwhile, the one food category that has surged 104% in a year: products with protein added. “No one’s even gonna know what protein you put in it. And then on the front, just write 15g of protein.”
Adir’s verdict on corporate speak after reading the Smucker CFO’s response to the Twinkies writedown: “We did have some internal execution issues that we’ve really right-sized and worked through over the last fiscal year. That is a sentence that is devoid of any content.” On the CFO’s follow-up that “snacking is still important”: “Well it’s certainly important to you because if it stops, you’re gonna go broke. But I’m not sure what it means.”
H3: Telstra outage; due process is dead
Telstra suffered a major national outage that knocked out data, calls, and Melbourne train services for two days. Communications Minister Anika Wells publicly “held their feet to the fire” before any investigation had concluded. Telstra CEO Vicki Brady, on holiday overseas, flew home within 12 hours and managed the crisis. The Telstra share price didn’t fall until Wells spoke.
Adam: “Vicki Brady has been outstanding here. She found out at 4:30am. She jumped on the next plane, within 12 hours was back in Australia. If you look at Scott Galloway’s rules for crisis management, it’s get the top person involved, apologise profusely and overcorrect. I think Telstra did literally everything they could.”
Adir: “The Telstra share price hadn’t fallen at all until Annika Wells came out and said we’re gonna hold your feet to the fire. The idea of governments trying to inflict pain unfairly or prematurely on private enterprise in order to jack up their own ratings, it’s terrible.”
Adir: “Due process, which seems to have been swept aside in the last five to ten years. There is no indication so far that Telstra did anything terrible or Vicky Brady did anything terrible to cause this. And I think the idea of having due process and investigating it properly and giving people the benefit of the doubt before executing them, it would be nice if we went back to these liberal democratic values.”
Adam: “Some random router in Vicky Brady’s job isn’t checked ten million routers in data centers around the world. That’s absolutely not her role. Why would anybody want to lead these businesses? The rush to pile on every time something bad happens and politicians need to get their name in the headlines, I think was terrible.”
H3: The Greens, the NDIS, and a $95M-a-day gambling number
To secure Green votes for the CGT legislation, the government agreed to delay NDIS reform by two months. Separately, the Australia Institute claimed the lack of anti-gambling legislation is costing Australians $95M a day in losses. Adam and Adir both pushed back, but from different directions.
Adam: “What the Greens demanded was ensuring the NDIS can still remain a cesspool of waste, fraud, and corruption. It just delays it, means the fraud continues, means the fraudsters in Western Sydney can rip off taxpayers and run these criminal enterprises.”
Adir: “I’ve got big issues with gambling companies targeting problem gamblers and sending them broke. But I think to target an entire industry that people are using as entertainment with ‘Australians are having $95M a day in gambling losses stolen off them’, I think it’s an unfair way to characterize the industry. Sometimes the winning or losing money aspect of it is actually secondary to the primary enjoyment that people are getting from actually engaging in the activity.”
Adam: “Pokies by far the worst. That’s the one that kills families. It leads to bankruptcy, it’s so insidious, and they’re programmed to steal money from you. Pokies 100% should be banned. That’s what the Greens really should be focusing on.”
H3: Firmus and IREN: the AI bubble is reaching its epoch
Firmus quietly launched a non-deal roadshow seeking to raise $500M at a $15.5B valuation ahead of its delayed IPO. UniSuper CIO John Pearce publicly said the roadshow was not well received in Australia. Meanwhile, IREN’s two founders were granted another $1B in restricted stock, on top of their existing $1B stake, just for remaining with the company for six years. Adam and Adir argue both stories are signs of a bubble reaching its peak.
Adir: “When I look at Firmus and I look at the economics, it feels to me like there’s this house of cards being built with a really good core, that’s NVIDIA. And then on top of that house of cards, they start building these other houses of cards all over the world. And Firmus hasn’t got any good core. They’re just a house of cards balanced on the house of cards bit of NVIDIA. And when the house of cards collapses, they all collapse down.”
Adam: “I reckon the peak AI bubble is what happened last week. The two IREN founders already have a billion dollars worth of IREN stock. They were granted another billion dollars of IREN stock. All you gotta do is hang around for six years. This is pretty outrageous. To give yourself a billion dollars for simply hanging around, when you’ve got a billion dollars, their excuse was we’re designed to attract, retain, and motivate high-calibre leaders. Well, I’m pretty sure you’re going to retain guys who have a billion dollar stake in the business without having another billion dollars.”
Adir: “The IREN Founders should be looking at ways to liquidate their existing stock, not getting more stock, would be my suggestion to them.”
Adam: “The smart money is now starting to get out. Sailors selling Bitcoin. All this bubble is reaching its epoch and it’s a matter of time now. We always get it too early every time, but it’s starting to feel like we’re starting to get pretty close to the end.”
Adir: “There are still plenty of people that today could go and buy something in the AI world and will still have the time to 10x their money before the crash. I’m not sure what it is you should buy. But that window is closing.”
H3: TEG/Ticketek: the disaster unfolds
TEG, the company founded by Kerry Packer in 1979 to sell World Series Cricket tickets, once grown into Australia’s dominant ticketing business under CEO Jeff Jones, is now hemorrhaging money after being run into the ground in just 13 months by former Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci. It lost $160M in 2025, $100M the year before. The company lost the Venues NSW contract and the Rod Laver Arena deal to AEG, and is now in talks with owner Silverlake to raise hundreds of millions in fresh capital.
Adam: “Banducci never spoke to the Stadiums people and ultimately lost the contracts. What Brad did do was hire a bunch of expensive former Woolworths staff. TEG is at its core a sales business and something former CEO Jeff Jones was the master of these relationships. Banducci is just a consultant, had no idea how to do this.”
Adam: “Even worse, TEG’s now in talks with Silverlake to raise hundreds of millions in fresh capital, which basically implies this business is bankrupt or close to being bankrupt. Private equity firms don’t like putting money back in six years after buying a business. That means they’re only doing it because they think the business is dead otherwise.”
Adir: “I’ve always found ticketing to be a bizarre business. This idea that says if you go to a stadium as an entertainment act, you don’t get to choose who sells the ticket to your entertainment because the stadium has made a deal with some other party. You’re not even buying the rights from the entertainer. The entertainer’s going to come into the thing you bought the rights from.”
Adam: “You really gotta be vertical. That’s why Live Nation is vertical. Live Nation basically said Ticketmaster is just this small cog in this big wheel. We’re gonna own the acts, gonna own the stadiums. The reason Ticketmaster and Live Nation have been successful is they can basically rip off the customers. Whereas Ticketek isn’t vertical enough to do that, which is why they’re struggling more.”
H3: Five other stories worth following:
Apple sued OpenAI, alleging a coordinated effort to steal trade secrets through former employees, including hardware chief Tang Tan himself. Apple seeks damages and immediate destruction of proprietary material, while OpenAI firmly denies wrongdoing.
A Khosla family-led group will buy the Seattle Seahawks for a reported $9.6B, an NFL record. Neeru Khosla is expected to control the franchise after approval, with sale proceeds ultimately destined for charity.
The World Cup reaches its semifinals, with France facing Spain and England playing Argentina before Sunday’s final. Meanwhile, baseball fans get the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game, followed by golf’s British Open tournament.
Japan is centralising its long-fragmented intelligence system as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expands major defence capabilities, reverses arms-export restrictions and responds to mounting espionage and coordinated disinformation threats directly linked to Russia and China.
Australia has become the third-largest importer of Chinese batteries as home installations surge alongside renewable energy growth. Falling prices, unreliable coal power and weak interstate connectivity are accelerating adoption and reshaping national electricity markets.