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The Contrarians catchup
Adam did an “Ask Adam Anything” session for year 11 and 12 accounting students at his sister’s school. Three of the 80-odd students who came up to him afterwards said they already run their own genuine businesses. Adam: “In our day, no one would have had their own business at sixteen.” Adir: “These kids are great examples of that. And they’ve got real genuine AI-driven businesses doing real things for real customers.”
Adir’s take on Gen Z’s sleep habits: “Gen Z have decided to adopt the behavior of boomers in nursing homes who basically wake up at five in the morning and then have dinner at 3.30 in the afternoon.”
Alastair Clarkson was fired by North Melbourne mid-contract in an unusually blunt press conference where the president and football chief publicly criticised him on the way out. Adir: “Professional sport is entertainment and entertainment is a brutal industry. The minute you’re not performing, getting an audience, winning, making fans excited, you’re gonna be brutally shown the exit.”
Student politics at Monash University: one party called Change! (aligned with Labor Left) holds every office-bearing position. Only 11% of students vote, in person only, and the experience of going to vote is reportedly unpleasant enough to keep most students away. Adir: “This is where politics starts. And if the Liberal Party and the Labor right can’t get a foot in here, I think it bodes badly. I think people need to get the vote out to go and stop this happening.” Adam: “I’m more shocked that you’re not more shocked about this.”
The Iran blockade update: Iran attacked US warships last week and the US hit three Iranian tankers over the weekend. Five million barrels a day of crude oil, essentially none of it Iranian, are now exiting the Persian Gulf via alternative routes. AMPOL is at all-time highs. Adir: “Attacking US warships is a move of desperation.” On the deal he thinks Trump would still do: “Iran could say we’re going to allow freedom of movement to the Strait of Hormuz and you sign a deal that says you won’t attack us for the next ten years and we will freeze a nuclear program. And I think Trump would do that deal in a second.”
$13B, bought by NVIDIA, athlete-backed
NVIDIA acquired Hugging Face, the open-source AI model hub, for $13B. The acquisition came just two weeks after a major hack of the platform, which is used by serious developers globally to access open-source models including Chinese models. Basketball player Kevin Durant reportedly turned $300K into $60M as an early investor, a return that may explain his appearance on the world’s highest-earning athletes of all time list. The episode also explored the growing trend of athletes becoming tech investors in Australia vs. the US.
Adir: “People basically know a few of the most well-known frontier models, models like Anthropic and ChatGPT and Gemini. But there are a gazillion open source models and serious developers and people working with these models. They want to use these open source models. And so Hugging Face is basically this place where you can use all these different open source models in one place.”
Adam: “These VCs are all mostly male fanboys of athletes. Their dream is to befriend athletes. And the founders are often star-struck by the athletes as well. So it’s free PR as well. What we’re seeing now is athletes becoming a significant part of the early stage cap table.”
Adir: “In Australia, appeal is very geographically specific. Lots of people are not in Melbourne and not Sydney and vice versa. Athletes do not have the pull in Australia that they do overseas. They can’t just shift stock by their brand being attached to it.”
Expert360: the golden window closes
Expert360, the online talent marketplace backed by Airtree, Rampersand, and UniSuper, was sold to US firm Swipejobs for just $16M, well below the $30M raised since 2013. As recently as June, Street Talk had reported the business was profitable with $140M in revenue. Co-founder Bridget Loudon-Harris, who stepped down from the Telstra board the same week, will receive nothing despite years of work.
Adam: “There was a golden window for this business. And I just want to emphasize again and again, when there’s a golden window, sell some stock. You don’t have to sell $20M. Sell $2M. Sell $5M. Like sell whatever you can sell that still leaves you with a big chunk. That will de-risk you dramatically.”
Adam: “I don’t think any CEO should take an external board appointment ever. And even more so a startup founder. You’re taking twenty percent of my time and giving it to these other guys when you’re paying me and you’ve invested in it.”
Adir: “There is absolutely nothing wrong with the founders having self-interest for their own outcomes in doing a startup. And I would go further and say, I do not want to be involved in a founder that does not have self-interest. Because ultimately on dark and lonely nights, that is what’s going to drive.”
Adir: “This is what happens with startups. Founders eat last, and in this case, there was no food left for them. I think it was a very respectful and high integrity outcome from the outside.”
CTM returns to trade, down 85%, and still probably overvalued
Corporate Travel Management returned to the ASX after more than a year of suspension, opening at $3.21 per share for a $500M market cap. That is 85% below its pre-suspension valuation of $2.2B. Forager CIO Steve Johnson, whose firm had written down CTM by 80%, said he was disappointed it didn’t fall further. Bell Potter’s Richard Coppleson said the only thing holding the stock up on day one was short covering. By week’s end, shares had fallen a further 31% to $2.25.
Adam: “The business claimed it generated a profit after tax of $25M last year. But note that $25M also included $23M in one-off accounting and forensic costs. So really they’re claiming their net profit last year was $48M, which is pretty remarkable. That said, it won’t include PEP’s loan, probably about $20M in interest there.”
Adam: “Most concerningly was corporate travel reporting revenues in July falling from $58M last year to $53M this year. And they also refused to provide guidance on future trading.”
Adir: “I think that drop to me is a good sign, not a bad sign. And I think there’s a good chance they might report a good next period. If this is as bad as it got in the worst time, that’s actually impressive.”
Adam: “Credit to the CTM team for keeping it alive. The new CEO and CFO inherited this mess. They’ve actually done an unbelievable job here. This is a rabbit out of the hat.”
On founder Jamie Ferris apparently selling his entire remaining stake via Morgan Stanley block trades:
Adam: “For him to still be able to pocket $50M after being the leader of that business into the grave is pretty remarkable. Yeah, he could have some legal action himself he has to face. So they might have some legal fees coming.”
Five other stories worth following:
UK startup Strolll is developing augmented-reality glasses to guide neurological patients through physical therapy at home or in hospitals, while new AI software aims to automate therapy validation and significantly shorten research timelines overall.
Adult dollhouses are booming as creative, nostalgic stress relief and increasingly serious business. Pandemic hobbies and social media accelerated demand, with luxury miniature homes, commissions, classes and content rapidly helping drive a multibillion-dollar market.
Scientists propose searching lunar soil for microscopic debris from extinct alien civilisations, arguing technological remnants could drift through space and settle on the Moon. Finding convincing evidence would be extraordinarily difficult amid human contamination.
Germany’s far-right AfD won a record 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, narrowly missing a majority but dealing Chancellor Friedrich Merz a major setback. Its platform includes stricter immigration, renewed Russia ties and reduced military Ukraine support.
Sam Altman says AI is enabling the “revenge of the idea guy,” letting nontechnical founders build businesses faster and cheaper. New US business formations are at record levels, though the opportunity remains unevenly accessible.