Episode 75: Is Uber Dying, Most Profitable Media Companies, Why Debt Kills, Kmart Copycats, Tesla Directors Gotta Pay, and our Best 2025 Predictions
The guys discuss the impact of self-driving on Uber, countries going broke, the world's most and least profitable media businesses, copying cool products, shock Tesla lawsuit, and 2025 predictions.
The Contrarians catchup
Adir has started 2025 with a spring in his step in Tel Aviv, inspired by the resilience and positive attitude of the Israeli people.
Adir encouraged people to travel to places they’re probably underestimating, while Adam says Australia is unique in that it may be the opposite: “Australia’s reputation is better than we deserve. We’re a nation of nanny state rule-following, where people think we’re this laid back, risk-taking country.”
Adir on rule-following in Israel: “I don't think anyone in this country is worried about rules like jaywalking. It might be illegal, it might not be. Nobody cares. They just make their own decisions on what the important rules are that make a difference to life.”
Adir sees the future of autonomous vehicles as a war between Google and Uber and the guys discuss who will be commodotised when the technology is mainstream.
Adir: “Marketplaces work best when both sides of the market are fragmented”.
Adir discusses Dreamfarm, a Brisbane-based company who make innovative kitchenwares and homewares and have been ripped off by big Australian chain brands.
Adir asks “what do you think of the idea of copying other people’s intellectual property and removing the whole patent system, from an ethical point of view?”
Adir on patents (he was hot with the one-liners this week, though this one may not be his): “Patents are a terrible sword, but an excellent shield.”
US scary debt growth
The US national debt ($36.17T) is the total amount of outstanding borrowing by the U.S. Federal Government accumulated over the nation's history.
It’s gone up $1T in three and a half months, and grew significantly higher under Trump’s presidency versus Biden’s.
Adir: “If you're on the Republican side or the Democrat side, pretty much every economist agrees, the next 20 years is make or break time for the US. And if it continues to increase at this rate, there will be no way to get it back, except excessive printing of money, which we know where that leads, right? That’s catastrophe.”
Potential future Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Poilievre, said that inflation “takes from the have nots and gives to the have yachts”.
Netflix Can Chill For Now
Netflix is well ahead its peers when it comes to profitability. Below is a ranking of the major media companies, by profit margin.
Netflix
Fox
Sony
Walt Disney
Paramount Global
Warner Bros. Discovery
(Listen for how Adir performs with ranking the six companies).
Tesla Directors Gotta Pay
Tesla directors had to pay a settlement of US $919M to resolve allegations that they overpaid themselves. The settlement requires Tesla board members to return roughly $277M in cash, $459M in stock options, and for-go options worth $184M.
Adam: “I have an issue with the Australian Financial Press deifying her [Australian business executive Robyn Denholm] as some sort of tech god when the most senior US corporate judge has basically said she’s a terrible director.”
Our Best Predictions
Adam predicted podcasting would continue growing as a major media source and the 2024 US election was referred to as “the podcast election”.
Data centres boom comes to a rapid end, which Adir thinks has another 12 months in it.
Adam predicts Chemist Warehouse goes public in 2025, settling below $10B, but Adir says they’ll trade at 20x in their first year on the ASX.
Adam says Waymo will go mainstream in the US in 2025, but Adir says this year is too soon and won’t be in enough cities yet.
Adam thinks Trump and Musk will fall out and Tesla drops by as much as 75%.
The guys predict a Canva IPO and that Virgin Australia sells to Qatar Airways.
Adir says consumer discretionary spending in Australia will continue to strengthen, and that 2025 will be a better year for discretionary retail than it was in 2024.
Adir predicts Trump will find a way to interpose himself in the whole Russia-Ukrainian situation and Russia will end up with some chunks of Ukraine.
Adir thinks 2025 will be an explosion of M&A activity, but Adam disagrees.
Listen in for the guys recapping their favourite things from 2024!
Five other stories worth following:
Severance, the sci-fi show that makes work a waking nightmare is back, costing Apple $20M+/episode. The show is one of Apple TV+’s few hits; Apple’s said to be scaling back spend after pouring $20B into content that didn’t move the needle much.
Last week LA was battling several wildfires in which at least 16 people died and thousands of structures burned. Experts say insured losses could surpass $20B, making it the costliest blaze in US history.
Jeff Bezos’ rocket outfit, Blue Origin, was set to launched its first vehicle into orbit. Progress has been slow for the 24-year-old company, at least compared to its younger competitor SpaceX, which had 134 orbital launches last year alone.
Meta and Amazon are the latest companies to toss their diversity, equity, and inclusion programs by the wayside. The DEI rollbacks follow similar moves from the likes of Walmart, McDonald’s, and Ford.
TikTok will be banned in the US starting on Sunday, barring an 11th-hour sale to a US buyer or a surprise ruling by the Supreme Court this week.